What Short-Term MAPK Perturbation Transcriptomics Measures: A Quantitative Framework for Resistance-State Inference
Short-term perturbation transcriptomics is increasingly used to nominate drug-response mechanisms, adaptive tolerance states, and resistance-associated programs. The interpretability problem is not that acute response is literally equated with final resistance; it is that several biologically distinct regimes can produce overlapping RNA signatures. Here I define an operational framework for MAPK-driven cancer models that separates acute pharmacodynamic response, cytostatic response, adaptive stress-tolerance/drug-tolerant-persister (DTP)-like rewiring, pre-existing resistant-like state, and stable acquired resistance. I then apply that framework without claiming clone identity from RNA alone. In GSE108383, a melanoma single-cell dataset comparing parental and six-week BRAF-inhibitor-resistant A375 and 451Lu cells, pre-existing resistant-like cells were rare: 0.6% of parental cells crossed a lenient resistant-state threshold and 0% crossed a stringent resistant-median threshold. In Tahoe-100M pseudobulk differential expression, I quantified 2,135 24-hour MAPK-pathway perturbation conditions across 39 MAPK-driver lines and 12 RAF, MEK, or RAS inhibitors. The observed regime distribution was 42.5% acute pharmacodynamic/cytostatic response, 7.0% adaptive stress-tolerance/DTP-like rewiring, 50.4% no detected program under the tested panels, and 0% stable acquired-resistance-like activation. These are transcriptomic mode fractions, not clone fractions. The central result is therefore methodological: short-term MAPK perturbation transcriptomics predominantly measures acute pathway suppression and cytostasis, with a smaller stress-tolerance tail, and should not be assumed to approximate stable acquired resistance-state transcription without longitudinal, lineage, or genotype evidence.